<<<<Charles Taylor. True, Sankoh is his old ally but Taylor, like any good ganglord looks out for himself first. And right now he's up to his ears in all the wounded alligators who did not lose the war against him but lost the ECOMOG secured elections. There ia enough timber, diamond and iron ore in Liberia itself that Taylor would NOT risk his precarious existence to engage in war on Salone. It may be Taylor is genuinely scared of a multi-faceted guerilla war/armed robbery spilling over into Liberia and doing to them what their war did to us. Especially as some 30-50 percent of "Liberians" are Saloneans. I don't see Taylor's capacity to wage war for a
territory of Salone>>>>.
Sam Zoker
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Very good insights on the Taylor phenomenon, Sam. From a rational strategic point of view, Taylor should concentrate on what he already has in Liberia: legitimate power and overwhelming electoral support. As a ganglord who has seven years of experience in warfare and politiking for Liberia's high office, he must surely have strong political instincts. Taylor cannot afford to take lightly the presence of ECOMOG in his country, and the potential for havoc of, as you said, the "wounded alligators who did not lose the war against him". Some of these "wounded alligators", like ULIMO, are reported to be regrouping. ULIMO was created and trained in Sierra Leone under Momoh's APC, and subsequently worked with the NPRC in its war against the RUF. The SL/Liberia border is a problem for both Taylor and Sierra Leone. He is haunted by a problem he helped to create.
Having said this, one should not ignore the "irrational" side of the man and his movement. His preference is for the RUF, which he funded and helped establish, and the AFRC -- not Kabbah and Sierra Leone's legitimate government. If the border situation deteriorates he would prefer to support the RUF and the AFRC to deal with ULIMO and the Kamajoi militia than the Kabbah government and ECOMOG. He does not trust ECOMOG, which has bullied him in the past, and tolerates it only out of necessity.
As a former gang/warlord, Taylor is also prone to opportunistic responses. Such types of people do not like to conform to standards or rules, and tend to calculate on the short-term. Thus his attack on ECOMOG's activities in Sierra Leone even though it is a member of the ECOWAS Committee of Five; the strengthening of ties with troublemaker Gadaffi when this is not likely to translate into any tangible gains for rebuilding his country; and his recognition of Taiwan (because of a few million dollars received before the elections), which has unnecessarily annoyed China, the rising economic super power in Asia. A small, seriously battered, wartorn country that is interested in reconstruction cannot afford take the steps he has taken. No wonder, reports indicate that things really look stagnant in Liberia even after three months of legitimate government and peace.
As Jimmy, Saffa and others have stated, Sierra Leone should continue to monitor and expose Taylor's activities. But we should not be too disturbed by his intentions and possible pranks. The only way to contain him is to strengthen the regional security system, ECOMOG, that he knows can get him to do things even against his wishes. We don't have to like or trust him to do business with him.
With all best wishes,
Yusuf